Prediction Markets

Expanding Clypt into prediction market trading and strategy development

Overview

Clypt will expand into prediction markets, enabling users to build and deploy quantitative strategies that trade on event outcomes. The same StatefulGraph architecture and operator protocol that powers crypto trading will extend to event-based contracts.

Why Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are growing rapidly as a new asset class:

• Polymarket processed $1B+ in volume in 2024
• Event contracts offer uncorrelated returns to traditional crypto/equity markets
• The market structure (binary/scalar outcomes, fixed expiry) creates unique alpha opportunities
• Most prediction market trading is currently manual — quantitative automation is the next frontier

Platform Integration

Data Integration

Prediction market data uses the existing OHLCVSpec — no separate spec needed:

from clyptq.apps.trading.spec.observation.crypto import OHLCVSpec

# Polymarket and Kalshi data flows through the standard OHLCV pipeline
prediction_data = OHLCVSpec(exchange="kalshi", market_type="prediction", timeframe="1m")

New Operators

Prediction market-specific operators planned:

Operator	Category	Description
ProbabilityCalibrator	Transform	Calibrate implied probabilities from market prices
EventResolver	Signal	Track event resolution and settlement
ExpiryDecay	Signal	Time decay signal as event approaches resolution
CrossMarketArb	Alpha	Arbitrage between prediction market platforms
SentimentCorrelation	Semantic	Correlate news sentiment with contract prices
MarketMaker	Order	Automated market making for prediction contracts

Execution

The existing TradingDriver and TradingIntention pipeline extends to prediction market execution:

• Binary contract buying/selling
• Limit order placement for market making
• Automated settlement and profit collection

Key Challenges

Challenge	Approach
Low liquidity	Market making operators, smart order routing
Event resolution risk	Resolution tracking, early exit logic
Non-standard data	Custom ObservationSpec with probability fields
Platform API diversity	Exchange-agnostic adapter layer (same as crypto)

Timeline

Prediction market integration is planned for Phase 2-3:

1. Phase 2: Polymarket data integration + basic event operators
2. Phase 3: Full strategy support, marketplace listing, additional platforms

Related Pages

Data System

How ObservationSpec handles different data sources

Semantic Operators

LLM and web search for event analysis